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brier score, quantile score descriptions #167

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@wholmgren

I was testing Quantile Skill Score in the reports and came across some results that initially confused me. Table below shows metrics for 4 pairs of forecasts

Forecast BS QS BSS QSS
Table Mountain Boulder CO Day Ahead GEFS ghi Prob(f <= x) = 0.0% 0.46 46.3 -0.113 0.653
Table Mountain Boulder CO Day Ahead GEFS ghi Prob(f <= x) = 40.0% 0.282 39.6 -0.161 0.688
Table Mountain Boulder CO Day Ahead GEFS ghi Prob(f <= x) = 50.0% 0.25 44.7 0.00e+00 0.643
Table Mountain Boulder CO Day Ahead GEFS ghi Prob(f <= x) = 100.0% 0.264 93.4 0.55 0.201
Table Mountain Boulder CO Hour Ahead Prob Persistence ghi Prob(f <= x) = 0.0% 0.415 129 nan nan
Table Mountain Boulder CO Hour Ahead Prob Persistence ghi Prob(f <= x) = 40.0% 0.243 122 nan nan
Table Mountain Boulder CO Hour Ahead Prob Persistence ghi Prob(f <= x) = 50.0% 0.25 121 nan nan
Table Mountain Boulder CO Hour Ahead Prob Persistence ghi Prob(f <= x) = 100.0% 0.585 112 nan nan

I came away from this wanting a few things in the brier score documentation

  1. a statement about how the Arbiter computes o for non-event forecasts (is f <= x?).
  2. some discussion about brier score vs. quantile score for quantile forecasts (like all of our reference forecasts as of today).

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