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New parameter spreadLink: fit climate outside the maxAsymptote ceiling - #81
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spreadLink = "ceiling" (default) is the fit as it was, bit for bit, with the same cache keys and ledger rows. "climateOutside" fits the logistic and its ceiling to the non-climate covariates and adds the climate term on the logit after it (fireSenseUtils::spreadProbFromCovs(climateRef =)). The climate reference is the mean of each climate covariate over the fit's pixel-years (fireSenseUtils::spreadClimateRef(); sim$climateRef_spread), found once in spreadFitPrepare and given to the fit, the threshold calibration (objective and gates), the held-out simulation, the validation figures and the ledger row, which records it with the link (spreadFitClimateRefTxt, spreadLinkTxt). The spread link's body joins the objective bodies in the fit's and the threshold's cache keys. fireSenseUtils floor 0.2.3.9106. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6
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Adds a switch that lets a spread fit put drought after the fuel-driven ceiling on spread probability instead of under it, so dry and wet years can differ in how far fires spread. Off by default; existing fits are untouched.
Affects: only runs that set
spreadLink = "climateOutside"; the default fits, cache keys and ledger rows are bit-identical to today.Depends-on: PredictiveEcology/fireSenseUtils#165
Technical details
spreadLink = c("ceiling", "climateOutside"), default"ceiling". With"climateOutside"the logistic and itsmaxAsymptoteceiling are fitted to the non-climate covariates and the climate term is added on the logit after it (fireSenseUtils::spreadProbFromCovs(climateRef =)), with the year effectyearSpreadSDon the same logit.spreadFitPrep()computessim$climateRef_spreadonce (fireSenseUtils::spreadClimateRef(): the mean of each climate covariate over the fit's pixel-years, on the design scale; new output) and stops if the formula has no climate covariate. It is passed wherevercovCentreis: the fit (R/fitSpread.R), the threshold calibration's objective and gates (R/runSpreadWithoutDEoptim.R,estimateSNLLThresholdPostLargeFires()), the held-out simulation and the validation figures (spreadObjFunArgs()), withomitNullArgs()so keys are unchanged when it isNULL.R/spreadFitLedgerRow.R) getsspreadLinkandclimateRef_spread(fireSenseUtils::spreadLinkTxt,spreadFitClimateRefTxt) only for such a fit, sofireSense_spreadPredictapplies the same link; rows of the default link are unchanged.objectiveBodies()now includesspreadProbFromCovs(), the link itself.fireSenseUtilsfloor 0.2.3.9106.Tests:
tests/testthat/test-climateOutside.R(default leaves fit, row and keys as they were; the reference equals the hand-computed mean and whatrunDEoptim()receives; with an intercept it is 0; ledger and held-out rows record link and reference; cache keys omit it only whenNULL; the calibration hands it to objective and gates; no climate covariate stops). Whole module suite: 830 pass.🤖 Generated with Claude Code
https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6