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Predict with climate outside the maxAsymptote ceiling when the ledger row asks for it - #30
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… row asks for it spreadProbOneELF() computes the spread probability with fireSenseUtils::spreadProbFromCovs(), the one function the fit uses, and hands it the row's climate reference (fireSenseUtils::spreadFitClimateRefTxt, ledgerClimateRef()). A row with a reference (fireSense_spreadFit's spreadLink = "climateOutside") gets the climate term on the logit after the fuel ceiling, exactly as in the fit; a row without one predicts as before. With several ELFs each row uses its own. fireSenseUtils floor 0.2.3.9106. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6
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Lets spread predictions follow a fit that puts drought after the fuel-driven ceiling on spread probability, using the same formula and the same reference climate the fit stored, so a fit and its forecast cannot disagree. Rows from existing fits predict exactly as before.
Affects: only ledger rows written by
fireSense_spreadFitwithspreadLink = "climateOutside"; every other row gives the same values as today.Depends-on: PredictiveEcology/fireSenseUtils#165
Technical details
spreadProbOneELF()computes the spread probability withfireSenseUtils::spreadProbFromCovs()(the one function the fit uses) instead oflogisticAll(), and hands it the row's climate reference fromledgerClimateRef()(fireSenseUtils::spreadFitClimateRefTxt); with several ELFs each row uses its own. Without a referencespreadProbFromCovs()islogisticAll(), so old rows are unchanged.fireSense_burnalready adds the year effect onqlogis(p), which is the new link's last step, so it needs no change.fireSenseUtilsfloor 0.2.3.9106.Tests:
tests/testthat/test-climateOutside.R(hand-computed values:p0under the ceiling plus the climate shift on the logit, abovemaxAsymptotewhere climate is high and equal top0at the reference; rows without a reference identical to the baseline; two ELFs each with their own reference, blended). Whole module suite: 168 pass.🤖 Generated with Claude Code
https://claude.ai/code/session_014G18Mik3fH4z5M5CyMSUS6