Economic & Climate Risk Analyst based in the NYC area. I build forecasting and risk models that turn very large, messy datasets into clear decisions for policymakers, rating agencies, and markets.
- 🏦 5 years at the Central Bank — Assistant Director, Monetary Policy: Bayesian VAR forecasting, stress testing, policy-rate implementation, government securities & money markets
- 🏙️ Center for Urban Policy Research — Research Analyst: municipal fiscal & credit risk across 564 NJ municipalities / 3.5M+ parcels
- 📊 Presented municipal finance findings to Moody's and S&P researchers, mayors, planners & developers
- 🎤 Co-presented "Residential Demographic Multipliers for Impact Modeling" with Prof. David Listokin — NSF-funded (awards CMMI-2053637, ICER-2103754), Florio Forum, Bloustein School, April 2025
- 🎓 Rutgers (Masters, May 2025) · LUMS (BSc Economics, 2017)
- 💬 Fluent: English · Urdu · Hindi · Punjabi · Persian
- 🎯 Open to: Economic Analyst · Credit / Risk Analyst · Macroeconomic Analyst · Financial Analyst · Climate / Flood Risk · Renewable Energy Economics
| $243B | Property exposure quantified — NJ municipal climate / fiscal risk |
| $4.1B | Potential municipal revenue at risk identified |
| 3.5M+ / 564 | Parcels / municipalities analysed in Python + ArcGIS Pro |
| +18% | Forecast precision gain — Bayesian VAR models (inflation, growth, trade, FX, energy) |
| 30 bps / 10 bps | Rate impact quantified for FX depreciation / global energy-price shocks |
| -40% | Reporting cycle time — Python + Excel dashboards for fiscal monitoring |
| # | Project | What it proves | Stack |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Housing & Demographics Explorer | Interactive Streamlit dashboard — ACS 2017–2021, all 50 states + DC, demographic multipliers by housing type, tenure & value | Python · Streamlit · ACS |
| 2 | Macro Yield Model | Can macro data forecast the Treasury curve slope? Real-time ALFRED vintage panel, SPF expectations, expanding-window tests vs AR baseline | Python · SQL · FRED/ALFRED |
| 3 | Demographic Multipliers Database | ACS 2018–2022 multipliers database + MySQL/Python query tools: people, age bands, school children by housing type & value | Python · MySQL · ACS |
| 4 | NJ Fiscal Impact Analysis | Price-adjusted break-even / fiscal impact for 38 NJ communities + Camden: municipal & school costs vs property tax revenue | Excel Modelling · Fiscal Analysis |
| 5 | Treasury Rates Monitor | FRED DGS2/DGS10 monitor with data-quality checks and a weekly client briefing | Python · FRED · QC |
| 6 | FX Exposure Monitor | FX pipeline: Python normalization → SQLite → SQL analysis → client insight memo | Python · SQL · SQLite |
| 7 | SEC Issuer Screen | 3.9M SEC filing facts scanned; 1,905 manufacturing issuers screened with auditable coverage controls | Python · SEC EDGAR |
| 8 | Demographics — 50-State Dataset | Household size, school-age & public-school children multipliers for every state | Python · CSV · ACS Microdata |
| 9 | Final ML Project | Full ML pipeline: EDA, Random Forest, ARIMA time series, GridSearchCV tuning & evaluation | Python · scikit-learn · statsmodels |
| 10 | Ragas Studio — RAG Evaluation | LLM / RAG experimentation: Mistral-7B-Instruct, prompt & validation techniques | Python · LangChain · RAGAS |
All data is public (ACS, FRED/ALFRED, SPF, SEC EDGAR, BEA, NIST) or aggregated.
| Project | What it is | Stack |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Macro Forecasting | Working papers from the Monetary Policy Department — incl. the first econometric model for forecasting trade in services (2022) | Econometrics · Forecasting |
| Input–Output Economic Impact Analysis | Leontief multipliers: NJ/PA gas pipeline impact, BEA supply–use tables, NAFTA value-added on WIOT | R · Input–Output |
| Oil Shocks & US Inflation Forecasts | ARIMA vs VAR in R — and why data-frequency alignment changes the answer; impulse responses | R · Time Series |
| CONTAM Indoor Air Quality | NIST CONTAM simulations: gas vs electric cooking, ventilation scenarios — PM2.5 up to 3,500 µg/m³ unventilated | CONTAM · Building Science |
| Applied Multivariate Methods in R | Logistic/GLM, mixed models, multinomial, GEE — graduate statistical computing | R · Statistics |
| Public Informatics Review Papers | Critical reviews: hybrid ML for housing prices; AI governance in the public sector | Research |
- AI Fluency: Framework & Foundations — verify
- AI Capabilities and Limitations — verify
- Building Effective Human-Agent Teams — verify
Certificates: certifications/
Languages & Modelling
Data, BI & GIS
Domains: Macro Forecasting · Credit Analysis · Municipal Finance · Debt Sustainability · Cash-Flow & Scenario Modelling · Fixed Income / Government Securities · Flood & Climate Risk · Securitization & ABS Fundamentals
2018 — 2023 Assistant Director, Monetary Policy — Central Bank
BVAR forecasting · stress tests · policy-rate transmission
2024 — 2025 Graduate Research Assistant — Center for Urban Policy Research
ACS demographic app (50 states) · housing & vulnerability risk
2025 — 2026 Research Analyst — Center for Urban Policy Research
564 municipalities · $243B exposure · Moody's / S&P presentations
2026 — Management & Research Intern — NexusWorks LLC (Remote, CA)
Financial dashboards · budgets · cash-flow & variance analysis
Education
- Rutgers University, New Brunswick — Master of Public Informatics / Public Policy Analysis (May 2025)
- Lahore University of Management Sciences — Bachelor of Science in Economics (June 2017)
- Building reproducible Python pipelines for municipal credit & flood-risk assessment
- Preparing technical work on yield curves, flow data & market strategy analytics
- Member, Union Climate Justice Committee
I'm looking for analyst roles and mentorship in economics, finance, and climate risk — and I welcome advice, leads, or a sample task to prove the work.
LinkedIn: umer-farooq-gojra · Email: umergojra@gmail.com · Location: Jersey City, NJ — open to relocation anywhere in the US