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D-GSO-7: reasoning-band earning and downgrade (P7) - #1360

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@AdaWorldAPI AdaWorldAPI commented Oct 6, 2026 •

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What

P7 of .claude/plans/2026-10-06-global-sudoku-replayable-orchestration-v1.md: the reasoning band rises only when its proof obligation was executed and passed, falls under contradicting evidence, and every change replays (§7, §8, §18 P7).

crates/cognitive-shader-driver/examples/reasoning_band_probe.rs, no library code changes.

Reused, unchanged

  • ReasoningBand in CausalEdge64 bits 61..63, read only through band_reading::BandDeclarations::project_band (declared Present, asserted provenance).
  • Pearl's CausalMask.
  • ontology_warrant::Quorum for independent evidence (silence is abstention).
  • CausalMask::simpsons_paradox_risk for confounding.

The ladder (a policy pin)

target obligation must already hold
Association an SO observation a majority of speaking sources corroborate —
Causal a PO intervention trial, executed here and passed Association
Counterfactual an SPO removal attack, executed here and passed Causal

A pass is computed, never supplied (Codex review). An event carries trial data, and run() executes it to derive the outcome:

  • Intervention: treated vs control counts. Passed only when both arms were measured and the treated rate is higher.
  • Counterfactual: a removal attack on premise masks. Passed only when the conclusion derives with the candidate and not without it.

There is no Passed input, and replay re-executes the trials.

Downgrades

  • A failed trial drops the band to the rung below the one it guarded.
  • Contradicting independent evidence caps the band at Association when it is a minority and drops it to Surface when it is a majority.
  • Confounding caps the band at Association.

The four P7 requirements

  • Association cannot skip to causal permission. A flood of observations under every mask stops at Association. An exhaustive sweep over 8 bands × every event kind finds exactly the three ladder steps as the only rises, each tied to an executed passing trial.
  • A required test can raise permission, but only from an executed trial whose data support it; unsupporting data or an unrun trial never raise.
  • Contradicting independent evidence lowers or suspends the band. So do confounding and a failed trial.
  • Band changes are replayable. The same events give the same edge bits, and only bits 61..63 move.

Scope limits

  • The ladder, its thresholds and the trial rules (rate comparison, set-based removal) are policy pins and minimal stand-ins.
  • The trial data are evidence the caller supplies; whether that evidence is genuine is the evidence layer's job. The band guarantees it follows from executing the trial, not from a stated verdict.
  • Relation, Perspective, Meta and Transcendent have no obligation and are never reached. No stored-row writes.

Tests (7) and disable runs (10, all red)

D1 an observation lifts to Causal · D2 a NotRun trial raises · D3 an intervention skips Association · D4 contradiction ignored · D5 silence counted as contradiction · D6 confounding ignored · D7 band read without the contract · D8 intervention passes regardless of rates · D9 removal never re-derives without the candidate · D10 an empty arm counted as a run.

Board

STATUS_BOARD: D-GSO-7 In PR; D-GSO-6 Shipped (#1358).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_01DgxrCafsJuAahpBs7oC14R

The ReasoningBand on a CausalEdge64 (bits 61..63) is read only through
band_reading::project_band (declared present, asserted provenance) and
earned one rung per executed, passing proof under the shipped Pearl
CausalMask: an SO observation a majority corroborates gives Association,
a passed PO intervention on top gives Causal, a passed SPO counterfactual
on top of that gives Counterfactual. Observations never lift past
Association, a NotRun test never raises, and no rung is skipped.

A failed test drops to the rung below the one it guarded; contradicting
independent evidence (Quorum, silence excluded) caps at Association when
a minority and drops to Surface when a majority; detected confounding
(CausalMask::simpsons_paradox_risk) caps at Association. The same events
replay to the same edge bits, and only bits 61..63 move.

The ladder and thresholds are policy pins; Relation, Perspective, Meta
and Transcendent have no obligation and are never reached.

6 tests (association cannot skip, executed-passing-only one rung,
exhaustive no-rise-without-obligation sweep over 8 bands x every event,
contradiction/confounding/failure lower, replay, unreadable band
refuses), 7 disable runs red.

Board: D-GSO-7 In PR; D-GSO-6 Shipped (#1358).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DgxrCafsJuAahpBs7oC14R
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AdaWorldAPI marked this pull request as ready for review October 6, 2026 11:48
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Comment thread crates/cognitive-shader-driver/examples/reasoning_band_probe.rs
Codex review: Tested { outcome: Passed } let any caller fabricate a pass
and raise the band, so the probe showed an asserted transition, not the
P7 invariant that the obligation was actually executed.

Events now carry trial data and run() executes it:
- intervention (PO): treated vs control counts; passed when both arms
  were measured and the treated rate is higher, failed otherwise, not
  run when an arm is empty;
- counterfactual (SPO): a removal attack on premise masks; passed when
  the conclusion derives with the candidate and not without it, failed
  when it never derives or the candidate is dispensable, not run when
  there is nothing to attack.

There is no Passed input left. Replay re-executes the trials. New test
a_pass_is_derived_from_the_trial_data; disable runs D8-D10 (rate check
removed, removal never re-derives, empty arm counted as run) go red, and
the earlier ladder disables still do.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DgxrCafsJuAahpBs7oC14R
@AdaWorldAPI
AdaWorldAPI merged commit 90306c4 into main Oct 6, 2026
10 checks passed
AdaWorldAPI pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 6, 2026
Supersedes the meaning of D-GSO-7's rungs; #1360's probe is unchanged.

Under a reading declared per class, bits 61..63 hold the strongest
relational statement the sealed model may assert: 0 Open, 1 Associated,
2 Related, 3 Contributes, 4 CausalCandidate, 5 Causes; 6 and 7 refuse.
ReasoningBand is used only as the 3-bit carrier, and a class declared
under the historical reading refuses the same bits.

Contracts are integer folds over unit masks and causal_audit's
SupportLedger: association needs two distinct sources, the robustness
mask can only refute, Contributes is a stable effect in every declared
stratum, Causes needs two distinct InterventionBacked sources plus
executed randomized arms. entails is an explicit table, equal to code >=
on 0..=5 only; historical Meta/Transcendent do not satisfy Causes.

An exhaustive 2,500-model family shows the chain is monotone with
association scoped to the declared populations (0 violations) and not
with marginal association (10, Simpson). Sibling specificity and removal
under overdetermination are shown not to be rungs; confounded
observational data does not demote an intervention-certified relation.

12 tests, 11 disable runs red. Names and thresholds are policy pins.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T8w7Ucm7NhitfTduFKmhYx
AdaWorldAPI pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 6, 2026
Supersedes the meaning of D-GSO-7's rungs; #1360's probe is unchanged.

Under a reading declared per class, bits 61..63 hold the strongest
relational statement the sealed model may assert: 0 Open, 1 Associated,
2 Related, 3 Contributes, 4 CausalCandidate, 5 Causes; 6 and 7 refuse.
ReasoningBand is used only as the 3-bit carrier, and a class declared
under the historical reading refuses the same bits.

Contracts are integer folds over unit masks and causal_audit's
SupportLedger: association needs two distinct sources, the robustness
mask can only refute, Contributes is a stable effect in every declared
stratum, Causes needs two distinct InterventionBacked sources plus
executed randomized arms. entails is an explicit table, equal to code >=
on 0..=5 only; historical Meta/Transcendent do not satisfy Causes.

An exhaustive 2,500-model family shows the chain is monotone with
association scoped to the declared populations (0 violations) and not
with marginal association (10, Simpson). Sibling specificity and removal
under overdetermination are shown not to be rungs; confounded
observational data does not demote an intervention-certified relation.

12 tests, 11 disable runs red. Names and thresholds are policy pins.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T8w7Ucm7NhitfTduFKmhYx
AdaWorldAPI pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 6, 2026
CodeRabbit / markdownlint: a line starting with '#1360' reads as an ATX
heading without a space.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T8w7Ucm7NhitfTduFKmhYx
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