[warnerktsang]

The bug (live incident, 2026-10-30 ~23:00 ET)

Edit baefb882 (add Aday Mara, drop Myles Turner) was approved and submitted. ESPN's transaction 4024e95b is unambiguous: type FREEAGENT, status EXECUTED, effective the next scoring period (period 12). The module nevertheless recorded the edit's outcome as waiver_pending — implying a waiver claim and a priority spend that never happened. The propose-time snapshot had correctly said on_waivers: false, and the move itself worked.

Root cause

Two compounding defects in backend/espn/roster_edits.py:

1. _classify_outcome never looked at the response's type field — it keyed solely off status (plus the propose-time snapshot), so claim vs free-agent semantics were conflated.
2. The actual mislabel came from _execute's post-submit roster verification: when classification returned EXECUTED, it re-read the current-period roster and, if the added player was absent, overrode the outcome to waiver_pending on the theory that ESPN's EXECUTED echo could not be trusted. But a FREEAGENT move submitted after the day's games lock is applied by ESPN from the NEXT scoring period, so the add legitimately is not on the current-period roster yet — absence proved nothing, and the check flipped a correct EXECUTED into waiver_pending.

The fix

• _classify_outcome now keys off the transaction's actual type/status: FAILED/error → failed (unchanged); type WAIVER, or an explicitly pending/processing status → waiver_pending; FREEAGENT + EXECUTED → executed; the snapshot fallback for echo-less responses is unchanged.
• The roster-verification safety net is retained but gated to waiver submissions (on_waivers), the only case it was designed for — catching a claim ESPN echoed as EXECUTED but actually parked. A straight free-agent edit now trusts ESPN's EXECUTED.

The genuine waiver path is preserved: an edit for a player who IS on waivers still records waiver_pending (existing test with a WAIVER/PENDING response, plus a new test where ESPN echoes EXECUTED on a WAIVER transaction, plus a preservation test for the no-type-echo verification path).

Tests

ESPN scope: 565 passed (562 baseline + 3 new). The incident regression test replays a FREEAGENT/EXECUTED response (ADD/DROP items) with the add not yet on the roster (next-period effectiveness) and asserts executed; it and the type-keying test both fail on the pre-fix code, verified by stashing the fix.

Not in scope

The historical record baefb882 stays mislabeled in the DB — no backfill and no data migration for one row in this PR. No changes to propose/approve flows, payload stamping, or response shapes.